Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 24.145690 26.382289 28.821773 31.696018 35.010525 38.738050 43.283102
2025-08-17 20.653727 23.680588 27.231625 31.768082 37.503898 44.650490 54.456328
2025-08-24 18.140341 21.536356 25.740958 31.458754 39.249088 49.848516 66.060641
2025-08-31 16.324081 19.906065 24.531573 31.147896 40.747789 54.865931 78.784667
2025-09-07 14.933714 18.605685 23.512344 30.833578 42.049858 59.744365 92.803353
2025-09-14 13.860012 17.583475 22.706247 30.637263 43.397198 64.893433 109.142664
2025-09-21 12.901765 16.611532 21.839707 30.189091 44.201943 69.237666 125.715455
2025-09-28 12.545331 16.440034 22.090236 31.464743 48.061232 80.092362 162.231194
2025-10-05 11.875048 15.750071 21.485029 31.258581 49.240339 86.009268 190.475871
2025-10-12 11.310624 15.168442 20.984468 31.149207 50.555248 92.579200 225.605915
2025-10-19 10.926004 14.824632 20.818705 31.583296 52.989635 102.480756 281.269453
2025-10-26 10.470656 14.338312 20.378278 31.465678 54.266653 110.005318 337.261026
2025-11-02 10.011631 13.825892 19.868688 31.190337 55.227336 117.287016 404.643525
2025-11-09 9.647943 13.441945 19.544350 31.229702 56.913712 127.420785 508.546847
2025-11-16 9.254965 12.987407 19.065532 30.916068 57.734026 135.385412 621.394729
2025-11-23 8.896024 12.567245 18.615054 30.608419 58.518146 143.693397 767.791664
2025-11-30 8.565858 12.175923 18.187264 30.300257 59.250321 152.289424 960.392764
2025-12-07 8.278485 11.839905 17.834114 30.108204 60.253248 162.548868 1246.145035
2025-12-14 7.976377 11.464330 17.385909 29.671025 60.529725 170.201352 1572.276655
2025-12-21 7.928569 11.512233 17.706354 30.914318 65.726041 202.874492 3114.616167
2025-12-28 7.690345 11.223678 17.386432 30.713368 66.732787 216.858961 4746.952688
2026-01-04 7.479278 10.972050 17.120107 30.606759 68.016753 233.596387 8208.136125
2026-01-11 7.345603 10.847893 17.086328 31.029776 71.067057 263.663913 23753.303350